New Predictions Reveal The Fate of The World's Biggest Ice Sheet if We Don't Act




According to a British research released on Wednesday, if the global temperature rises by more than 2 °C, the largest ice sheet on earth might raise the sea by "several meters" over millennia.

According to Durham University researchers, the melting East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) may result in a rise in sea level of up to 50 centimeters by 2100 if global greenhouse gas emissions continue to be high.

The scholarly publication Nature published their analysis.

If emissions continue to be high after then, the EAIS may raise sea levels by one to three meters by 2300 and by two to five meters by 2500, according to the researchers.

However, the evaluation found that if emissions were significantly decreased, EAIS might only be responsible for around 2 cm of sea level rise by 2100.

This would be far less than the predicted ice loss from West Antarctica and Greenland.

The destiny of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet is still very much in our control, according to a crucial finding of the research, according to lead author Chris Stokes of Durham University's Department of Geography.

It's crucial that we avoid arousing this sleeping behemoth since this ice sheet is the biggest on the globe and contains the equivalent of 52 meters of sea level.

He said, "Keeping global temperature rises within the 2 °C limit established by the Paris Climate Agreement should mean that we avoid the worst-case scenarios, or maybe even halt the melting of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, and therefore minimize its influence on global sea level rise.

Simulations on a computer

The report did make the observation that the worst-case situations were "extremely improbable".

At the 2015 UN Climate Change Conference in Paris, world leaders decided to keep global warming well below 2 °C and continue efforts to keep the rise to 1.5 °C.

In order to make its projections, the study team, which comprised experts from the US, the UK, Australia, and France, examined how the ice sheet behaved to earlier warm times.

To simulate the consequences of various greenhouse gas emission levels and temperatures on the ice sheet by the years 2100, 2300, and 2500, they did computer simulations.

They discovered evidence that suggests that a portion of the EAIS "collapsed and contributed several meters to sea-level rise" 3 million years ago, when temperatures were around 2-4 °C hotter than they are now.

"There is evidence that a portion of the EAIS retreated 700 km inland in response to merely 1-2 °C of global warming even as recently as 400,000 years ago, not so long ago on geological timeframes," they noted.

The Australian National University's Nerilie Abram, a co-author of the study, cautioned that the sheet "isn't as secure and protected as we formerly imagined."

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